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Selling Your Lladros - Part VII - Calculating a Value

To develop this method, I examined the 2006 Lladro Reference Guide and found examples of classic (glazed), gres, and limited edition figurines and looked at the price rise during the period they were for sale. Then I made the assumption that the value of the piece would continue to grow at the same rate after it was retired. This assumption is reasonable in that the supply of the figurine has become fixed (or diminishing due to attrition), demand goes up for a period after retirements (my empirical observation in the year or two following retirement), and then ebbs as memories fad and advertising features the new introductions.

With this model I found that Gres pieces appreciated about 3% per year, limited editions about 4%, and classic or glazed (shiny) but not limited edition pieces about 6.5% per year. Assuming that the appreciation follows the rules of compound interest and interest is paid monthly, the Lladro Price Multiplication Factors below was constructed. Here's how to use it..

First subtract the retirement year from the current year. If the piece in question retired in 1980, subtract 1980 from 2008 and get 28. This is the number of years the piece has been retired. Then select a %percent interest column. Let's assume the piece is Gres and you're okay with the 3% rate. Go down the 3% column to the 28 year row and note the number, 2.31 in this case. Multiply the last retail price by this number (e.g., if the last retail price was $1000.00, today's price estimate would be $2310.00). (Continued below the table.)

Lladro Price Multiplication Factors
Years 3% Interest 4% Interest 5% Interest 6% Interest 6.5% Interest 7% Interest 8% Interest
1 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.07 1.08
2 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.17
3 1.09 1.13 1.16 1.20 1.21 1.23 1.27
4 1.13 1.17 1.22 1.27 1.30 1.32 1.37
5 1.16 1.22 1.28 1.35 1.38 1.42 1.49
6 1.20 1.27 1.35 1.43 1.48 1.52 1.61
7 1.23 1.32 1.42 1.52 1.57 1.63 1.75
8 1.27 1.38 1.49 1.61 1.68 1.75 1.89
9 1.31 1.43 1.57 1.71 1.79 1.87 2.05
10 1.35 1.49 1.65 1.82 1.91 2.01 2.22
11 1.39 1.55 1.73 1.93 2.04 2.16 2.40
12 1.43 1.61 1.82 2.05 2.18 2.31 2.60
13 1.48 1.68 1.91 2.18 2.32 2.48 2.82
14 1.52 1.75 2.01 2.31 2.48 2.66 3.05
15 1.57 1.82 2.11 2.45 2.64 2.85 3.31
16 1.62 1.89 2.26 2.61 2.82 3.05 3.58
17 1.66 1.97 2.34 2.77 3.01 3.28 3.88
18 1.71 2.05 2.46 2.94 3.21 3.51 4.20
19 1.77 2.14 2.58 3.12 3.42 3.77 4.55
20 1.82 2.22 2.71 3.31 3.65 4.04 4.93
21 1.88 2.31 2.85 3.51 3.90 4.33 5.34
22 1.93 2.41 3.00 3.73 4.06 4.64 5.78
23 1.99 2.51 3.15 3.96 4.44 4.98 6.26
24 2.05 2.61 3.31 4.20 4.74 5.34 6.78
25 2.12 2.71 3.48 4.46 5.06 5.73 7.34
26 2.18 2.82 3.66 4.74 5.39 6.14 7.95
27 2.25 2.94 3.85 5.03 5.76 6.58 8.61
28 2.31 3.06 4.04 5.34 6.14 7.06 9.32
29 2.38 3.18 4.25 5.67 6.55 7.57 10.10
30 2.46 3.31 4.45 6.02 6.99 8.12 10.94
31 2.53 3.45 4.70 6.39 7.46 8.70 11.84
32 2.61 3.59 4.94 6.79 7.96 9.33 12.83
33 2.69 3.74 5.19 7.21 8.49 10.01 13.89
34 2.77 3.88 5.45 7.65 9.06 10.73 15.04
35 2.85 4.04 5.73 8.12 9.67 11.50 16.29
36 2.94 4.21 6.02 8.62 10.32 12.34 17.64
37 3.03 4.38 6.34 9.16 11.01 13.23 19.11
38 3.12 4.56 6.66 9.72 11.74 14.19 20.70
39 3.22 4.75 7.00 10.32 12.53 15.21 22.41
40 3.32 4.94 7.36 10.95 13.37 16.31 24.27


Had the piece been a classic edition, the estimate from the table would be 6.14 or $6140.00. This seems like a big difference. Before accepting the estimated value, go back to the guide. If the piece was a limited edition and sold out within a year, a higher interest rate might provide a better estimate. If it was a classic piece on the market for many years, there are probably a lot of them in existence - greater supply - suggesting that a lower interest rate is more reasonable. But now you have a starting value - just keep in mind that the money you get will be what buyers are willing to pay.
Andy Andrews
http://www.andrewsgallery.com




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